Mortgage Rates Fall to 7.11%, a Fourth Straight Weekly Decline

The rate readings are Freddie Mac's weekly survey for the week of November 12, 2026, and the CME FedWatch December hike odds after the November 10 CPI report; the price and supply figures are from the RMLS-based October 2026 report. See the sources at the bottom of this page.

The Survey Low, and the Daily Market's Turn

This week the two rate stories every buyer and seller follows, the official weekly survey and the day-to-day market, told opposite tales at the same moment. Four things explain what happened:

• Freddie Mac's survey samples lender rate quotes from Monday through Wednesday of each week, so the November 12 reading mostly captured quotes from the first half of the week, before Tuesday's data landed. That timing matters, because the survey printed 7.11%, down from 7.18% and a fourth consecutive weekly decline, at the same moment the daily market moved sharply the other way. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.45%, down from 6.57% and from 5.49% a year earlier.
• Tuesday's October Consumer Price Index ran hotter than expected, with headline prices up 0.4% for the month. The 10-year Treasury, which sat near 4.88% on Monday, jumped roughly 10 basis points to near 4.98% on Tuesday and climbed back above 5% by Thursday, near 5.10%. Mortgage News Daily's daily 30-year index rose 12 basis points to 7.30% on November 10, its biggest one-day move in more than a month, and the next weekly survey, due November 19, is expected to show the jump.
• The Fed calendar moved with it. CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting jumped to 100%, from about 84% the day before, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a quarter-point move and floated the possibility of a half-point; roughly one in ten contracts now price the larger move. The direction of travel into December matters more than any single reading, and the window before the meeting is where today's rate environment most likely holds.
• Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, called the fourth straight decline "some relief" for prospective homebuyers "who continue to face affordability challenges," while noting rates remain well above year-ago levels, when the 30-year averaged 6.24% and the 15-year 5.49%. In short: the official weekly number is the lowest in seven weeks, and the practical quote you see today is higher, with the December meeting as the hinge.

The short version for planning: the weekly number is lower, the daily number is higher, and the direction of travel into December is what matters most. Our note on the October data and the first rate reversal walked through the CPI-driven jump in real time, and the note on the Fed holding rates covers the vote and what a December move would mean.

What It Means for Buyers

For buyers, this week pairs the lowest official reading in seven weeks with a market that just moved toward tightening again. The practical play is a short one:

• On a typical $436,000 loan (20% down on the $545,000 median), principal and interest run near $2,930 a month at the 7.11% reading, about $20 below the 7.18% survey and $60 below the 7.30% daily quote. Locks are typically 30 to 60 days, so a lock taken now still covers a December close. Our note on the year-end buying window walks through the calendar, including the Monday, November 16 property tax deadline and the Fed's December 8-9 meeting.
• Treat 7.11% as the trend, not the quote. The weekly survey is a smoothed, lagging measure, and the rates lenders quote today follow the daily market, which moved up after CPI. The practical move is to compare real lender quotes now, before December 8-9, and to ask about temporary buydowns and seller-paid concessions, which answer a high-rate environment dollar for dollar. Our note on Oregon down payment assistance walks through up to $60,000 of state help.
• October's report keeps the leverage in buyers' hands. At 4.3 months of supply, the most inventory of the year, with 67 days of average market time, buyers have choices and room to negotiate terms: inspections, contingencies, and financing windows are all back in contracts, and seller concessions are common. Our full read on the October report has the details, and the note on the market shifting toward buyers explains the mechanics.

A typical payment frames the math: a median-priced home around $545,000, purchased with 20% down and a 30-year fixed loan near 7.11%, brings a principal and interest payment of roughly $2,930 a month, before property taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues, about $250 above the same home a year ago at 6.24%. If you have read our buying versus renting comparison, you know the full monthly number is what matters, not the mortgage line alone.

What It Means for Sellers

For sellers, the week is a reminder that flat prices do not mean easy sales, and that the calendar before the Fed's December meeting is a real window:

• Price against the buyer qualifying near 7%, and expect the December meeting to harden that. A buyer who qualified at 6.24% a year ago now carries roughly $250 more a month on the same median-priced loan, and a quarter-point hike would push the payment higher still. Homes priced against current, closed comparables still draw showings in their first two weeks; homes priced against last year sit, and the data show they get cut.
• The window to close before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting is narrow and real. A listing that hits in the next two weeks faces a smaller but serious pool of pre-approved buyers working toward a December 31 close, which is cleaner on property taxes and mortgage interest. Our year-end playbook walks through the calendar town by town.
• Concessions and presentation close the gap. With inventory at 4.3 months and price reductions common, buyers compare, and the home that shows at its best is the one that sells on its timeline. Contributing to a buydown or covering a share of closing costs can turn a rate-conscious buyer into a contract, often for less than an equivalent price cut. Our note on selling with a boutique team explains why process wins in a balanced market.

The good news in a 4.3-month market is that inventory is up for everyone, and a well-priced, well-presented home stands out more, not less, when buyers compare carefully. Winter normally brings fewer, more serious buyers, and the November-through-December window our winter outlook describes is where the current week lands.

What That Looks Like in Our Service Areas

The metro median is a useful starting place, but the value of a local team is the local picture. Here is how a week of survey lows and daily highs tends to play out around the communities we serve:

Every one of these communities has its own rhythm, and the full map of our service areas shows the range we cover, from the metro core down the Willamette Valley. Our current listings show what is actually on the market right now, priced for this rate environment.

Sources

The figures in this update come from these public reports, retrieved November 13, 2026. Monthly payment figures are the team's own estimates from the prices and rates cited, and are not quotes.

• GlobeNewswire: Mortgage Rates Decline for Fourth Consecutive Week to 7.11%

  Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of November 12, 2026: 30-year fixed at 7.11%, down from 7.18%; 15-year fixed at 6.45%, down from 6.57%; a year earlier the 30-year averaged 6.24% and the 15-year 5.49%. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

  Weekly national average mortgage rates, including the 7.11% reading for the week of November 12, 2026. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• KOB/AP: The average US 30-year mortgage rate falls to 7.11% this week, its fourth straight decline

  Confirms the 7.11% reading as the lowest in seven weeks, with chief economist Sam Khater saying the decline provides some relief to prospective homebuyers facing affordability challenges. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• CNBC: Mortgage rates jump sharply higher after easing for 4 straight weeks

  On November 10, 2026 the average 30-year fixed rate rose 12 basis points to 7.30% per Mortgage News Daily, the biggest one-day jump in over a month, after a hotter-than-expected October CPI report with headline prices up 0.4%. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• Mortgage Professional America: Fed rate hike odds hit 100% as Waller floats bigger December move

  CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting jumped to 100% from about 84% after the CPI report and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks backing a quarter-point move and floating a possible half-point, with roughly 10% to 12% odds of the larger move. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 5% as oil gains and more Fed rate hikes expected

  The 10-year Treasury moved back above 5% on November 12, 2026, near 5.10%, after rising about 10 basis points to near 4.98% on November 10 from 4.88% on November 9. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• The McCreith Team: November 2026 Market Action Report, Portland metro

  RMLS-based October 2026 figures: median sale price $545,000, up 0.9% year over year; average sale price $609,900, up 0.6%; year-to-date average $617,300, up 0.4%; closed sales 1,622, down 21.5%; pending sales 1,587, down 20.2%; 4.3 months of supply; 67 days average total market time. Retrieved November 13, 2026.

• Federal Reserve FOMC calendar

  The FOMC's final scheduled meeting of 2026 is December 8-9; markets now price a hike as near certain after the November 10 CPI report. Retrieved November 13, 2026.