Mortgage Rates Ease Again to 7.24%: Two Straight Weeks of Declines

The rates are the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey readings for the week of October 29, 2026; the payment estimate is the team's own math on a $436,000 loan (20% down on the $545,000 September metro median); the Treasury figure is the daily 10-year yield from FRED. See the sources at the bottom of this page.

Why Did Rates Fall Two Weeks in a Row?

Two weeks of declines feels like a trend after a seven-week climb, and the honest answer is that it is a modest correction, not a pivot. Here is the mechanics:

• The story is the 10-year Treasury, and it has come down from a scary peak. The 10-year yield hit about 5.31% on October 5, 2026, its highest since April 2002, and has been easing since: roughly 4.96% on October 22, then a band of about 4.9% to 5.05% for the rest of the month, closing near 4.92% on October 30. Mortgage rates follow that yield, not the Fed, and the retreat has put two consecutive weekly declines on the board.
• It is the first back-to-back drop since late summer. The average 30-year fixed loan ran 7.40% for the weeks of October 8 and 15, eased to 7.32% the week of October 22, and printed 7.24% the week of October 29. Sixteen basis points of relief in two weeks is small against a three-year high, but it is real at the level of a monthly payment.
• The level is still near a three-year high. At 7.24%, the average is about 1.07 percentage points above the same week a year ago, when the 30-year averaged 6.17%, and a full point above where it sat two years ago. This is a pause in a climb, not a return to the low-rate years, and the weekly data is far more likely to wobble than to trend sharply either way.
• Spreads are the wildcard. With the 10-year near 5%, the gap between that yield and a typical 30-year mortgage has widened to roughly 225 basis points, the widest in about a year and well above the 150-to-200-point norm. If that spread normalizes while the Fed waits, mortgage rates could ease further even without a move from Washington; if it widens again, the recent decline reverses just as quickly.

If you have been following our notes through the fall, the same logic has run in reverse: when the 10-year pushed to 5.3% in early October, the 30-year climbed to 7.40%, a nearly three-year high. The climb and the easing are the same market, and the recent numbers read more like the Treasury settling after a scare than the start of a new low-rate era. Our note on the first decline to 7.32% lays out how the selloff and the safe-haven bid into bonds moved rates in both directions.

Where Rates Go From Here: December 9

The Fed held on October 28 exactly as expected, and the mortgage market has already moved back to the calendar. What the two-week easing does not change is the shape of the road ahead:

• The Fed held on October 28, and the market is already looking past it. CME FedWatch fed funds futures price roughly a 73% chance of a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, the last scheduled decision of 2026, up from about 42% a month ago, and some trackers read the post-meeting pricing even higher. The 10-2 vote, with both dissents favoring an immediate hike, kept December firmly on the table.
• Forecasters still see a 7% world for a while. Fannie Mae projects the 30-year to average about 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and about 7.5% through 2027, and the Mortgage Bankers Association sees rates above 7% through 2027. Two soft weeks do not change those projections; plan around the payment at today's number, not a hoped-for headline.
• The data between now and December 9 will decide it. The October jobs report, the next inflation readings, and the Treasury market's reaction each carry more information than the Fed statement did. For buyers and sellers the calendar is simple: if a move is coming, it most likely arrives December 9, and locking a rate when the monthly number works before then is the conservative play.

Our note on the Fed holding rates, published October 29, walks through the vote, the dissents, and what a December move would mean for the Portland market. The short version: treat the window before December 9 as the period when today's rate environment is most likely to hold, and make plans against the payment you can manage now.

How the Portland Market Reads in Late October

Rates moved this week; the Portland market is moving more slowly and more predictably. Here is where it stands as October closes:

• The latest full report still describes September. RMLS-based figures put the metro median sale price at $545,000, flat year over year, with about 4.2 months of supply, the highest of the year, average market time at 68 days, up from 57 in August, and pending sales down 17.9% from a year earlier.
• Active inventory is easing from its seasonal peak. About 1,614 homes were on the market as of October 16, just below the roughly 1,646 a year earlier, and inventory typically keeps sliding from October into the new year. More supply than last spring, less of a sprint than the pandemic years, and plenty of choice for a patient buyer.
• Price reductions keep climbing. About 47% of active metro listings carried a price reduction in September per the RMLS Market Trends snapshot, one tracker put the share near 53% in October, and average price per square foot eased to about $305, its lowest since 2022. Buyers have negotiating room they have not had in years, and the sellers who feel it are the ones still priced to last summer.
• The first full read on October arrives before Thanksgiving. RMLS typically releases its Market Action Report around the 18th to 20th of the month, so the November report, covering October data, should be out by mid-November. Until then the September figures are the most reliable picture of the metro. Our note on the market shifting to buyers walks through that report in full.

For the town-by-town payment picture at last week's 7.32% reading, our payment-by-community note breaks the math down across all eight of our service areas; the shifts this week are small fractions of those numbers.

What the Easing Means for Buyers

The payment math moves little week to week, and the level still rules budgets. Here is how a smart buyer reads two soft weeks:

• Run the payment at 7.24%, not the march of the headlines. On the $545,000 September metro median with 20% down, the loan is about $436,000, and at 7.24% principal and interest run near $2,970 a month before taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues, about $25 less than last week and roughly $310 more than a year ago, when the same loan at 6.17% carried a payment near $2,660. Two weeks of easing take the edge off; they do not change the level.
• Lock when the payment works. With December 9 priced as the next real date and a possible hike on the table, a pre-approval that pins today's rate for a set window lets you act the day a well-priced home lists. Waiting for a better headline is a bet on a market that has spent more than a year moving the other way.
• The tools still do more than the rate. Temporary buydowns, seller-paid concessions toward closing costs or points, and Oregon's down payment programs all reduce the cash and monthly strain of a purchase, and they work whether rates hold at 7.24% or drift back up. Our note on Oregon down payment assistance walks through up to $60,000 of state help.
• A balanced market still rewards a ready buyer. With price reductions on roughly half of active listings and market time at 68 days, the buyer who is pre-approved and ready can negotiate terms, not just price, and the winter market has historically been the leverage season. Our winter outlook explains why November buyers compete with a smaller, more serious pool.

If you would like a run of the current rates for your situation and a referral to a lender we trust, ask us. Pointing buyers to the right lender and the right assistance programs is part of the job we do every week. Call (971) 777-3137 or send a note through the contact page.

What the Easing Means for Sellers

For sellers, two soft weeks of rates change far less than the habits that already separate winning listings in a buyer-leaning market:

• Price against the financing your buyers actually face. A buyer who qualified at 6.17% a year ago now carries roughly $310 more a month on the same median-priced loan, and a December hike would push that further. Homes priced against current, closed comparables still draw showings in the first two weeks; homes priced a year ago sit, and the data show they get cut.
• Concessions close more deals than price cuts. Contributing to a temporary buydown or paying a share of closing costs can turn a rate-conscious buyer into a contract, often for less than an equivalent price reduction, and buyers in a market with real inventory are asking for exactly that.
• Days on market still matter. With average market time at 68 days and price reductions on roughly half of active listings, a listing that lingers gets read as stale. A sharp first-week pricing strategy keeps you ahead of that cycle, whether the weekly rate reads 7.24% or 7.40%.
• November still holds a serious pool. Inventory dips after Thanksgiving, and the buyers who remain are often in a position to move quickly. Our note on selling with a boutique team explains why presentation and process decide which listings win in a balanced market.

Our seller's guide to 10 decisions before listing walks through the prep, from pricing to presentation, if you are thinking about the November window.

What This Looks Like Across Our Service Areas

The metro median is a useful starting place, but the value of a local team is the local picture. At a 7.24% average with a possible December hike ahead, here is how the environment plays out around the communities we serve:

Every one of these communities has its own rhythm, and the full map of our service areas shows the range we cover, from the metro core to the Willamette Valley. Our current listings show what is actually on the market right now, priced for this rate environment.

One More Date: Oregon Property Taxes Are Due November 15

With rates and the Fed calendar in view, the next date on many Oregon homeowners' calendars is the property tax deadline. Oregon property tax payments are due November 15, 2026: pay in full by then to earn the state's 3% discount, or start the three-installment schedule (November 15, February 15, and May 15). County collection offices typically accept payments into mid-November, with interest on delinquent balances after the deadline.

Our note on Oregon property taxes explains how Measure 5 and Measure 50 actually work, why buying a home does not reset your assessed value, and how to check the effective rate in your town before you shop. It pairs well with a November budget, and it is one of the most-read pieces we publish.

Sources

The figures in this note come from these public reports, retrieved October 30, 2026. Monthly payment figures are the team's own estimates from the prices and rates cited, and are not quotes.

• Freddie Mac News Release: Mortgage Rates Decline Further to 7.24%

  Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of October 29, 2026: 30-year fixed at 7.24%, down from 7.32%; 15-year fixed at 6.60%, down from 6.68%. A year earlier the 30-year averaged 6.17%. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

  Weekly national average mortgage rates, including the 7.24% reading for the week of October 29, 2026. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• FRED: Market Yield on US Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity

  Daily 10-year Treasury yield series: peaked at about 5.31% on October 5, 2026, its highest since April 2002, eased to about 4.96% on October 22, and closed near 4.92% on October 30. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• 24/7 Wall St.: The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Jumped Back Above 5%

  Coverage of the 10-year yield retesting 5% in the last week of October 2026 and what it means for mortgage rates. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Bankrate: Mortgage Rate Trends and Predictions for October 29 - November 4, 2026

  Bankrate's expert poll heading into early November: 80% expect mortgage rates unchanged in the first week, 20% expect further declines. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• American Banker: Watch spreads, not the Fed, for mortgage rate shifts

  Analysis of the mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury, which ran near 225 basis points, its widest in about a year, above the 150-to-200 basis-point norm. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Nora Real Estate: Interest Rates Hike Odds for December 2026 Jump to 85% After Fed's Recent Decision

  Post-Fed market pricing for a December 8-9 hike; CME FedWatch fed funds futures read roughly 73% on October 29, with some trackers higher. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• The McCreith Team: October 2026 Market Action Report, Portland metro

  RMLS-based September 2026 figures: median sale price $545,000, flat year over year; about 4.2 months of supply, the highest of the year; 68 days average market time; pending sales down 17.9% year over year. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Real Estate Agent PDX: Portland Real Estate Market Update, November 2026

  About 1,614 active listings as of October 16, 2026, just below the 1,646 a year earlier; average price per square foot eased to about $305, the lowest since 2022; buyer traffic down roughly 15% year over year. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Realtor.com September Housing Report: price cuts reach a yearly high

  31.6% of Portland metro listings carried a price reduction in September 2026, versus 20.8% nationally; the RMLS Market Trends snapshot put the active-listings figure at 46.9% as of mid-September. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• The Optimist: Portland, OR Housing Market Forecast

  Tracked the share of Portland-area listings carrying a price reduction near 53% in October, up from 46.9% in mid-September, with the share climbing year over year since 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• CNBC: Fannie Mae sharply raises mortgage rate forecast for 2027

  Fannie Mae's October 14, 2026 forecast projects the 30-year averaging about 7.4% in Q4 2026 and about 7.5% through 2027; the MBA expects rates above 7% through 2027. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

• Multnomah County: Property tax payments are due November 15, 2026

  Oregon property taxes due November 15, 2026: pay in full for a 3% discount or pay in three installments (November 15, February 15, May 15). Retrieved October 30, 2026.